13. The Importance of History & Momentum Investing

Hugh Sifu: [00:00:00] Hey, guys. Thanks as always for listening to Thoughts of a Random Citizen. Sometimes during an episode, I'll say things like, the Quartering Act is the Fourth Amendment, which is [chuckles] obviously wrong. I was attempting to draw a connection to the Third Amendment from the Quartering Act, but this podcast is unscripted, so things like that happen, but that's okay. That's what this podcast stands for. I'm not upset for getting something accidentally wrong, and you shouldn't either if something like that happens to you. Like I've said time and time again, facts and logic rule the day.

Having said that, always feel free to go to toarcunited.com. That is T-O-A-R-C (thoughtsofarandomcitizen) united.com and post under the forums, under the corresponding episode if you hear a mistake that I haven't caught, or if you'd like to topic or have any questions or want to invite some new topics discussed in any of the episodes. I will be sure to post any corrections I find along with some added information in the forums page under the corresponding episode as well, so you can get a more full idea of a topic instead of just one man's opinion.

There are other tools on toarcunited.com like a place to record your question that could be played on the podcast under the podcast section at the bottom. I will continue to release more relevant and helpful tools as the podcast develops. Feel free to check it out, but as always enjoy the episode.

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All right, guys. Welcome back to Thoughts of a Random Citizen. I'm your host as always, Hugh Sifu. Today we are going to be talking a little bit about everything really. As you notice on this podcast, this isn't an exact niche of one thing that we talk about over and over again, because it's just thoughts from a random citizen. However, that being said, this podcast is designed to give a voice to those [00:02:00] that in today's day and age might not have one. It's a podcast that embraces open ideas above all else and doesn't shut people down for thinking differently, because if there's one thing I found in the world is that there's more than one way to skin a cat.

I know that that's kind of a jerk analogy, but there's more than one way to make a soup. There's more than one way-- although you talk to the Italians, they may disagree, to make a pasta. There's more than one way to do something. There's more than one way to go about something. If you're talking about math and science, that might not be absolutely true, but when we're talking about the way society and the much diverse society that we exist in operates, that's probably more accurate than not accurate.

That being said, I will have a podcast later released about pluralism, which is what I just highlighted. However, today's podcast is not as much about pluralism but more about what's happening in today's society. Essentially, I'm going to briefly talk about momentum investing and then go on to what's happening in today's day and age abroad and in governments. Without further ado, I'll kick it off.

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So, momentum investing is a strategy that I utilize in a smaller scale. Again, it's always good to be diverse in your investing strategies. I use momentum as a very, very small percentage of my portfolio, maybe 5% to 10% [00:04:00] on a few stocks. It's essentially a risk it's not investing. You see what's going on in the world abroad. You invest hopefully ahead of what everyone else is about to catch on to. You write it up, you sell it and that's it.

It's more risky. I caution this with choosing stocks that still have good fundamental values that will get some of that momentum play. These aren't stocks that you're going to want to hold for the long term, but still, buy stocks that you would be okay with holding for the long term so that way you're not losing money and just rolling the dice. I'll full circle back to that at the end of the episode about what I'm looking at currently, and it ties into this episode.

Today, I want to mainly talk about history and the direction of our government. If that does not interest you, bye-bye. [chuckles] I wouldn’t listen to this episode because that's what we're going to be talking about or skip to the end. It'll be the last five minutes I'll be talking about it so you can skip to that. I'll continue in full circle with the momentum investing. If you're just here to get a tip, go to the end. For the rest of you, welcome, and hopefully you guys enjoy this episode.

We're pretty much going to talk about how we're really ignoring what history says. I'll try to get into the hypocrisy of today's mindset, but just a quick history lesson about the First and Second Amendments of the United States. [00:06:00] For those of you who don't know, the First Amendment protects an array of things, one of them being freedom of speech, religion, the right to assembly, but I'm going to mainly highlight the first one I said, which is freedom of speech.

Before I go any further, again, I want to highlight the history of this, because I know a lot of you are probably like, "Blah, blah, blah," and have a mindset of whatever today's media is chirping about. I'm not even going to touch that, because I'm just going to go back to the beginning of why this amendment was created to the constitution, the importance of it.

Our founding fathers who I guess have a bad rap in today's day and age, couldn't tell you why. Essentially, after they suffered a long time from in all senses of the word tyrannical dictator, which think of King George's as you will. I'm not bashing on the guy, but this was just a different style of government that existed back then in the '17, '16, '15 for a long time we had kings and queens.

Essentially what happened was after the UK funded a massive war campaign to essentially help the colonies fight off the French and Indians. It bankrupted the UK government, the King, the Commonwealth. They said, "All right. We need you guys to pay us back for all of the money we just spent protecting you." The colonies were like, "Nah." So, there's that, but they essentially said, we produce all this and we're not being represented to have a say in how much we're being taxed [00:08:00] hence, no taxation without representation.

Fast forward 100 years, 50 years, war, bad stuff, founding fathers are now writing a constitution. Essentially, they said what went wrong. They made these amendments, and they're in a room and they're just talking, and they're writing this out, and they're trying to create a better form of government that helps the people have a voice. They said, "All right. What went wrong with the authoritarian dictator-like tyrannical government of the UK?" I'm not saying that that's a thing now.

All of Europe and most of the world, minus a few- China and others- essentially have a democracy now, so it's good. We've evolved from the kings and queens of the past. Essentially, they said, "What went wrong?" Guys, we're in a group. We're just brainstorming here. Hey, guys, what do you think is probably like-- what should we say that people have a right to have? The first thing on everyone's mind, well, the first thing that they wrote down, somebody said, "The right to free speech." Why? Because that was being silenced when the tyrannical government was trying to implement taxes and create change on the colonies and suppress the colonies' basic rights.

The first thing that they said was, "Hey, maybe we should be allowed to talk freely, assemble freely, and discuss openly." We want to have the right to say, "Hey, this is the amount of taxes we think you should put on us and not have one person 3,000 miles across the Atlantic dictate what we have to do in our day-to-day life." That's the First Amendment [00:10:00] on top of religion right to assembly and others. Then the very second thing that they said was the right to bear arms. Again, these guys were just in a big room, brainstorming after they just fought this war and said, "Hey, let's create a better government for the people, for everyone. The individual human beings, not one power, not an authoritarian government, but a government that is run by the people, the individuals." The first two things that they said were the right for free speech, and the right to have guns, why? Those are very, very crucial in ensuring that your individual right is able to be protected.

You should be able to say what you want, and you should be able to have the power to stop someone from coming into your home. That goes on to the fourth amendment, which is the troops Quartering Act, something something. What it essentially goes on to say is that the government can't make you give up your home to troops, something that the Commonwealth did back in the day when going to war with the colonies. Point being is, again, the first and second amendment were the first two most important things that when brainstorming a type of government for the fundamental rights, and a government that supports the individual the most, the first two were speech and the right to bear arms.

What are we doing now? What is the US government doing now? It's trying to take those two rights away [00:12:00] and there are people who support this. Who say, "No, you guys can't say this crap. No, you guys shouldn't have guns, no." There's a whole heap of things that I can go into from this like the fact that when you live in a city maybe you shouldn't have a gun, because there's really not much of a need but that doesn't mean you can't own it if you want to.

When you go out into the country, like 97% of the United States or abroad, because they're city hubs and then there's the rest of the actual world. You live out in the wild, it's beneficial to have guns when there are animals that not only come and affect your cattle or your farm but can attack you because the closest police call is about an hour away, because you're in the middle of nowhere. There's that. Even in Australia, and the UK, and Europe, farmers, and stuff, still have guns, guys, something that I feel is ignored in or not even known in the US.

On top of that, we act like Europe in this socialized government, which again, I will get into pluralism at a later date because I will talk about this to an extent. We act like they've got it figured out and that their citizens are better off than American citizens. They don't have crime and all this, but that's just not true. They have heaps of crime. They have more corrupt authoritarian style leaders that while the parliament's of the EU at this current day and age and exact time are against the trade treaty just signed with China.

The French [00:14:00] and German leaders signed it anyways. And the parliament, those elected by the people don't have much of a say. Something that when a central authoritarian style of government dictates an entire path of everyone, a very diverse group of people. It's difficult to plan that out and encompass an entire diverse group of people and benefit all of them.

Again, that's pluralism, that's for another time. The point being is that we have this mindset and we have this media, I guess, that's essentially shutting down another viewpoint. They're essentially shutting down speech on another logical way of life.

You can't tell me that the right side of life of the ideological spectrum doesn't come to logical conclusions about the way humans should exist, it does. You also cannot tell me that the left side of the ideological side of life doesn't come to logical conclusions about the way we should live because it does. Both are rational thoughts. Right or left, both ways of life are rational. I'm just diving into pluralism here but essentially, there is more than one way unlike science and math, where you have a problem and solves it, and it has an exact solution.

Society doesn't necessarily have an exact solution, an exact answer, two plus two might not equal four-- [00:16:00] That's a terrible example.. Two plus two equals four in math but in society, one way of living isn't necessarily the only way of living, especially when we have such a diverse group of people. Try to end on the whole pluralism and leave that for another rant but this is just the last thing that I wanted to touch about. I was watching Joe with Chris Christie, and Rahim Emanuel.

It was funny to me, because, Chris Christie was trying to say what the republicans' party's future was. How he's solid and why his values and ideals were important as well. Emanuel essentially laughed at him, said, "You're now the minority. You don't have a voice, because you're the minority, so we are going to dictate the future of America." I just thought that was quite funny considering isn't the left's entire mindset, “We need to support the minority as well” But then, now that the Republicans say, or are the minority, their opinion doesn't matter. Isn't that who you represent, is the minority? The left, isn't that who they represent? Very funny.

It just goes back in full circles to the fact that ran a really critical point. We need to remember why the Constitution [00:18:00] and our style of government was set up the way that it is, the importance of the Electoral College, the importance of the diversity of America. We need to remember that we're all friends in Australia, in Europe, around the world. Democracy is a better form of government than the authoritarian form of government, hands down. You cannot have a few people in a room dictate the future of everyone. We're too diverse for that. Anyways, back to the momentum investing. Sorry about that rant there, it was pretty, pretty intense but it's just something that blows my mind, essentially.

Guys, there's more than one way to make a soup. There's more than one way to skin a cat. We can tackle problems together as friends, as neighbors, and solve them differently. Guess what, if you living in a city, want to go about it in one way, and you live in the country want to go about it in another way, as long as they're both logical, rational, and aren't evil laws, then let it happen. Who cares if you live a bit differently? Who cares if your laws are a bit different? Anyways, momentum investing so because of this new government that is now in charge, the Biden administration, they're obviously going to start making laws that [00:20:00] inhibit the Second Amendment, which is the right to bear arms.

As an investor that should make you smile because what stocks performed well when democratic presidents are in power? Ammo, gun stocks. I'm not going to give any names but find ammo and gun stocks because they have a very very strong history of outperforming in the four to eight years that there is a democratic president. Always try to think ahead, always try to be ahead of it, and don't allocate all of it. Don't do a momentum strategy for everything because I don't think that ammo and gun stocks are good to own for the long term but it's something that they'll perform all right.

That's it, guys. Hopefully, you enjoyed the podcast. Sorry for ranting a bit there. I do have strong feelings sometimes. I will talk to you guys next week. Hopefully, you enjoyed this episode. Enjoy the week guys.

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