20. Thought Experiment Number One: Doom's Day?

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Hugh Sifu: [00:00:00] All right, welcome back. I've been gone, but you probably didn't notice. Anyways, welcome to Thoughts of a Random Citizen. My name is Hugh Sifu. I've been gone the last two weeks, so I do apologize for not letting anyone know, but again, I doubt you're too worried about it. I am in the beautiful Byron Bay still. It is a bit rainy from time to time, but pretty frigging nice. If you do hear any background noise in this episode-- crickets, birds, people playing guitar, people laughing-- I am at the wonderful Arts Factory. That's just going to be part of this episode. Hopefully, you guys enjoy it, but it should be to a minimum.

One thing I just wanted to briefly talk about before I jump into this episode was a clarification on the last episode I released. Pretty much that I wanted to say that I don't believe a shift to one collective thought is a bad thing. I think that when we all get behind an idea, that's typically for the best. It creates less divide as well. What I am cautioning in that episode is that I think a collective thought created by an AI algorithm with no understanding of a consciousness is a bad thing. We would hinder ourselves by not finding a collective consciousness with each other and supplementing or using technologies to create one.

I just wanted to clarify that because I might have, in the episode-- not quite sure-- but I just wanted to make sure that I'm not against a collective agreement, a collective thought. I think [00:02:00] it's probably a good thing in the future, but if we let technology do it for us, I mean, yes, that's probably not the best. I was having a conversation with somebody else the other day. Going off into a random tangent here, but anyways.

It's pretty much, if you just give us our fists without our tools, we are not very high on the food chain. We can beat a wolf, maybe, but three wolves, we're screwed. Without our tools, we are nothing. Not nothing. We're obviously still very smart and adaptive, but instead of using tools more to hinder our own bodies, as you will, we should really try to move forward and work on things to help our abilities, our natural abilities, as opposed to hindering them with more tools. I don't know, thought that was an interesting thing.

Anyways, to the episode at hand. I'm pretty excited for this one. I've tried to record it two separate times, but I just didn't really like where I went with it. I've had a conversation with other people a bunch of times now. I'm pretty sure I'll nail it for you guys. It's an interesting one. I'm going to go ahead and use Einstein's thought experiment to characterize it because that's pretty much all it is.

I'm not one for conspiracy theories, so that's not really what I'm trying to do. I always like to keep an open mind. Facts and logic rule the day. I've said that many times. My opinions change as facts change and as should, I hope, everyone's, but it's just one of those things that I have really enjoyed researching this and figuring out. Figuring out how to think differently on this matter, because science will obviously have its opinions and you know, so does this random citizen. Anyways, let's dive into the episode.

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[00:04:00] Let's pretend that a massive asteroid, meteor, comes to earth. Let's say that maybe it is a really big one. There's a few things trailing along with it and it's just going to [bleep] us up. Now, we could explode it, sure, if that's a thing and we can do that successfully. All right, great. No worries. We continue on, but let's say that it is out of our hands and we can't, and it doesn't work out the way we had planned on saving Earth, and it does come down and hit us. What would that look like? How would the world react? Where would we be after? That's what this is about.

Then it also brings the questions, maybe this has happened before. Now, that's the crazy thought experiment of it, but hear me out. If that does happen, what happens to Earth when a massive meteor comes down and crashes? Well, the theory is that floods happen, right? That was maybe the cause of the last Ice Age. Maybe that was the cause of the dinosaurs' extinction. A basic flood isn't all that happens when a crater comes and hits. Let's just go with that, though, and explain what would happen.

If it did come down and tides changed-- let's say they rose by 200 kilometers, because the entire ocean's flooded because of a massive crater, which is likely, and has happened many times in the past--

Quick insert here, guys. Sorry for interrupting the podcast. I found out that I keep saying "crater" a lot in this instead of "meteor." [00:06:00] Just figured I'd clarify. When I say a massive crater comes down, [laughs] I mean meteor. Anyways, continue and enjoy.

Well, over 40% of cities around the world would be completely sank and destroyed. That's a fact. Over 50% of the populations around the world would be decimated, wiped out, and gone, immediately. 50% of the population's gone. That's like a Thanos kind of event. The world is in turmoil. Yes, we could probably pick up the pieces. Yes, we'd probably do all right. A lot of infrastructure's gone. A lot of our main everything is gone, but we could probably pick up the pieces. It would be rough. I don't really have that much faith in humanity picking up the pieces in regards to the fact that we couldn't even really transition from one election to the next peacefully in the most recent US election. There's that scenario. You can say we'd be all right, but yes, it would be tough.

There's that. Let's just continue, though, to the fact that that's not all that would happen. There was a survey done, or a study done, and out of the last 35 crater impacts that have happened, there is a 90-plus percent correlation in volcanic activity that occurs with it. If a massive crater comes and hits Earth, yes, it's going to cause a change in the floods and the tides. On top of that, probably the more important thing, the areas that maybe aren't affected because they're in the middle, well, volcanic activity is [00:08:00] highly correlated with crater impacts.

Now you have areas like the middle of the US, which is expected to be completely decimated. If-- what is it?-- Keystone explodes, the National Park up there, that's just supposed to happen on its own. If a massive crater comes, that's only going to accelerate that. That whole middle area that's not going to be affected by the massive tidal change and flood change, well, now that's decimated by a massive eruption, a supervolcano, that's also going to erupt in other places around the world.

Now you're looking at not only 50% of the population, 40% of the cities, but you're looking at 80%, if not more. That doesn't even account for the fact that if there was a volcanic activity, volcanic explosions all around the world, if there were those things, you're looking at a winter. You're looking at a radioactive, dark winter. I'm blanking on the term here. It's a bit rough, but all the ash in the air kills crops, changes the climate, not only the fact that the tides have changed. Now, you're looking at the fact that, oh, all of the population's gone. Maybe my small area survived, but now the crops that I used to grow don't grow here anymore because it's a completely different climate.

Not only that, but let's bring in the Kessler effect. Let's just say that 80% of the population's wiped out. This is all hypothetical, obviously, because that's being generous. 80% of the population's wiped out because of massive floods, volcanic activity, [00:10:00] changing climate. 20% still alive, that's a bunch, and that's being a bit generous, but that's a bunch. Well, we still have technology, right? We've still got our satellites in the sky. We still can communicate, to an extent. Everything's kind of screwed, but we still have some form of civilization reminiscent. We'll be all right. Whether I doubt that or not, let's just pretend that we'll be all right.

Well, the Kessler effect is a theory that essentially says, "If you or if a satellite gets destroyed in space, and it explodes, which has happened plenty of times, well, that satellite explodes, and without gravity, it just kind of continues to a large extent." When that satellite explodes, it's not just like, oh, boom, and then it all falls back down to Earth. No, no, it goes, boom, explodes, and there's a massive new area that's 15 to 100 times bigger than the satellite itself, that now all that debris can maybe affect another satellite because it's in an exponentially larger area that isn't controllable anymore. Then that satellite maybe [noise] explodes-- that was an explosion sound-- and so on and so forth.

We currently have 800 satellites that not even a quarter of that are operational. Anyways, we have private companies around the world. One private company wants to launch, one, wants to launch over 2,000 satellites in the next 10 years, because there's all this talk about, essentially, satellites that are trying to create Wi-Fi everywhere in remote regions. That's one company wants to create, [00:12:00] launch, 2,000 satellites in space. Not only that, but we have a bunch of companies, a bunch of governments, more surveillance, more and more satellites. If a massive crater comes with all of its debris, which it is likely to have trailing around it, that might hit a satellite or two on its way down to impacting Earth.

If the Kessler effect proves true, I'm not saying this happens now, but in 15, 20 years, when we have thousands and thousands of satellites hovering around Earth, well, the Kessler effect seems a lot more realistic. Now we don't have that technology floating out in space to help us connect with one another. Let's go ahead, like I said at the beginning of this episode, when we rely too much on tools, it hinders our growth as humanity, but in 20 years, 50 years, we're not going to understand and operate the way we did back in the 1700s, back in the 1100s, back in zero. That'd be like Roman times.

Anyways, we're not going to operate in that same way because we're going to have technology doing a lot of the stuff for us. What happens when 80% generously gets wiped off the face of this Earth, and we don't have our technology to fall back on anymore because it just gets decimated? The Internet of Things is no longer the Internet of Things. Chaos, I'm pretty sure, would probably happen. Side note, I'm just being told that there are actually 3,000, well over 3,000 satellites in space, instead of the 800 that I said earlier. That just further proves my point so I'm okay with that.

Also, I know this all seems like, oh, this will never happen, but it's actually a pretty common occurrence, in meaning [00:14:00] meteors coming and crashing and hitting the Earth in the long life of the Earth, which is that 4.5 billion years. The 2,000 to 3,000ish years of actual reliable recorded history is a few blinks of an eye in the terms of Earth's life. For a common occurrence, it's not that absurd of a thought to think that volcanoes will erupt and meteors will crash and hit the Earth, especially considering we even have much data from recorded history of these events occurring. Just something to think about. I know that, obviously, this is a thought experiment, and it's a bit out there, but you also have to realize that we're due for something in the future, especially considering it's been a few thousand years without one.

It's a weird thought experiment but it brings into question-- and this is where it gets a bit crazy-- it's possible that we've been here before. People say, oh, there's no way, blah blah blah, but if you look back-- and I'm not saying I believe this. I would like to. I think it's kind of a cool thought. You never know, but if you look back, we have history that essentially, once writing starts, they already have civilization built around it. We just pop up out of nowhere and we pretty much have the systems that we have in place today, minus a dictatorship, sub a democracy. Other than that, taxation, trade, bartering, monetary value, it's all the freaking same.

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We haven't really developed that much since the Egyptian-- Obviously, we've developed a lot since the Egyptian times in our understanding on minute [00:16:00] things that are very important. Details matter, but the systems in which we operate are basically what we had a long time ago. They're more efficient now. We've had more time to iron them out, but I don't know. Just a curious thought, a thought experiment that I hope you sit with and think about. Think about it.

Anyways, that's all I got for you guys today. Hopefully, you enjoyed it. Hopefully, it was founded in some form of logic because that's what I love. Hopefully, a big-ass crater doesn't come, eff us up in a few hundred years. All right, guys, I will talk to you next week. Enjoy, and I won't go absent for the next two weeks on you guys. Have a good one.

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